The Speech

WTO DG Roberto Azevedo's inaugural vision speech is here.

"We must be committed to deliver a deal before we get on the plane to Bali. It is vital that we succeed. All of us need the WTO. Ordinary people need it too even though they don't know it. Ultimately we should judge our performance on the difference we make to people’s lives. I believe that the multilateral trading system can be the preeminent force supporting growth and development in the world — lifting people out of poverty, improving living standards and helping to put the global economy back on track. We have a unique opportunity to restore the WTO to its proper place at the heart of this system, and to realise the mission of this organisation. 

The intermission is over: it’s time the WTO was back at the centre of the world stage. The stakes couldn’t be higher. We have to deliver. And, if we work together, I know that we will."

Over to Bali... 

The next DG officially announced

It is official. The likely selection of Roberto Azevedo as the next DG of the WTO was made yesterday by the Chairman of the Trade Negotiations Committee:

On the basis of all of the above, and in keeping with the Procedures, our assessment of the preferences provided to us by you during this third round of consultations is that the candidate from Brazil, Mr. Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo is the candidate most likely of the two to attract consensus, on the following basis:

• Mr. Azevêdo carried the largest support by Members in the final round and has consistently done so in each round; and,

• he enjoyed support from Members from all levels of development and from all geographic regions and has done so throughout the process.

The next step would be convening of a special meeting of the General Council on Tuesday 14 May 2013 where the sole item on the agenda will be the appointment of the next Director-General of the WTO. At that meeting, and in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 19 of the 2002 Procedures,the name of Mr. Azevêdo as the candidate shall be submitted as the most likely to attract consensus and recommend his appointment by the General Council as the next Director-General of the WTO for a period of 4 years starting 1 September 2013.

This brings to an end the selection process of the next chief of the multilateral trading institution.

The Winner is...

Though not officially announced on the WTO website, reports of the next WTO chief are coming in - It would be Roberto Azevedo from Brazil. Reuters confirmed it here. IELP reiterated it here.

Lot of hopes of reviving Doha, to tackling politically sensitive issues in international trade to a greater involvement of developing countries in the multilateral system are pinned on this new selection of the chief.

An interesting aspect in the Reuters report about the currency undervaluation issue that Brazil has raised at the WTO:

"Azevedo has led an effort to get the WTO to discuss the impact of exchange rates on global trade, which many members do not consider a relevant issue for the trade body and one that should be dealt with at the International Monetary Fund. 

The currency debate is unlikely to gain traction under Azevedo's tenure as head of the WTO because it would need member countries to take it forward."

Whether it will receive any traction at the multilateral trading body is anybody's guess.

Over to the next DG of the WTO in September.

The Economist on the next DG, WTO

The Economist could not have been far behind with the selection of the DG of the WTO reaching the final stages. 

It had this to say:

"Where there are differences between them is in the way the countries sponsoring them, Brazil and Mexico, see trade liberalisation. Brazil, with a large domestic market that is enshrined in the country’s constitution as part of the national patrimony, has been a less-than-fervent advocate of free trade. Mexico has become one of the most open manufacturing economies in the world since joining NAFTA, even if it is overdependent on the United States. In some ways this divergence represents a rift that runs down the centre of Latin America, as well as through the WTO.

          ...

A decision on the WTO leadership is expected in May. Whoever wins, both Mr Blanco and Mr Azevêdo insist they will act independently of their governments. But their nationalities mean that the choice will inevitably send a wider signal."

And the winner is...

It is Brazil vs. Mexico

It is official. It will be Brazil vs. Mexico for the WTO DG's position. The WTO website announced the last lap here.

"Therefore, we will begin the third and final round of consultations based on a revised slate of two candidates, again in the order in which their nominations were received, as follows: 

— Mr Herminio Blanco (Mexico)
— Mr Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo (Brazil)"

One is tempted to compare the football record of the two countries - though that may not have any bearing on the result here.

Process as important as the result - The race for the WTO

For those of us who are following the selection of the next chief of the WTO, the process itself is fascinating. An open contest between 9 candidates from the member countries with a majority of them from the developing world. Out of the 9, 4 have been eliminated from the race and five remain in the fray. Apart from the rhetoric, agenda and forces at play for the selection of the next WTO DG, I found the process adopted and the stress on transparency of the process appealing. Does it happen in case of all multilateral international institutions?

Just to those interested in following the process so far, the statement of the Chairman of the General Council of the WTO is found here. It details out the process out so far and the emphasis that it is a "member-driven" process indicating the will of the members of the organisation.

"We are gratified by the 100 per cent participation of the membership in the first round, and the overall respect for and adherence to the Procedures shown. We look forward to the same high level of engagement in this next round. Let me reiterate that this process is your process: the decision to appoint the new Director-General is yours to make. 

Before I end my statement, I would like to say a few words with regard to the four candidates who are not listed on the slate for the next round of consultations. On behalf of the entire membership, I would like to express gratitude for their participation in this selection process. As I said earlier, they are all highly qualified and respected individuals. I would also like to pay tribute to the fair and dignified manner in which they, their delegations, and their Governments have conducted themselves in this process."

Let Round 2 begin. 

Commentaries on the contest for the next WTO chief

As the contest for the next chief of the WTO gathers momentum several commentaries on the vision, goals and strategies of the potential contenders are hitting the shelves. Vox EU recently carried a piece on the importance of the context to multilateralism. Bernard Hoekman and Petros Mavroidis called for paying more attention to the contest since, according to them it, had great significance to the future of the trading system.

"The Director-General of the WTO does not have a magic wand that can be used to remove the fundamental constraints and factors that have impeded the successful conclusion of an ambitious Doha Round outcome. But he or she does have a critical role to play in helping the membership to identify and pursue options that will promote growth in ways that do not undermine the multilateral trading system."

Commenting on the importance of the "crown jewel" of the multilateral trading system - the dispute settlement process they had this to say:

"It is little known outside trade circles but it has become the busiest state-to-state international court extant, with WTO members having brought over 450 cases since the WTO was created in 1995. These dimensions of the WTO tend to be neglected in terms of public attention but they are critically important in maintaining international cooperation on trade matters and providing traders with the certainty they need to invest and engage in international trade."

This commentary has been followed up by a brilliant e-book by the above authors on the positions and views of 7 of the 9 candidates. The IELP blog commented on it here. 

One distinguishing feature of the selection process of the WTO as compared to perhaps other international institutions is the transparency of the process in terms of the candidature, their positions and selection procedure. Though the ultimate selection may hinge on many factors, the public discussion and debate in international circles as compared to a closed room selection process is a positive sign for the multilateral institution.

The race heats up

I have written about the interesting race for the selection of the next chief of the WTO here, here and here.

Found this piece by Kimberly Ann Elliot that summarized the contest and issues so far in the selection of the next DG of the WTO. While the contest is heating up and innumerable parleys would be underway to reach a consensus candidate, it would be interesting to analyze how consensus really works in practice.As she put it:

"So where is consensus likely to take us in the WTO ‘tournament’? The consensus rule has its strengths and weaknesses—it often makes agreements more difficult to reach, but it also makes them more credible and sustainable. And the reality is that the consensus rule is not going away. But the WTO does need to find a DG who is willing to shake up the status quo and find more effective ways of managing the institution with its  large and diverse membership. In this situation, will the consensus rule produce a leader with the skills to accomplish that, or one that offends the fewest people?"

The Washington Post has this overall analysis of the candidates, there pros and cons, odds as well as their most interesting positions here.

Over to the political process to offer the results.

The Rushford Report - part II

The Rushford Report - Part II brilliantly summarizes the strengths and weakness of the nine candidates for the post of the WTO DG here.

I found this quite interesting in the context of the ability of the DG and the WTO Secretariat to move the multilateral negotiations forward:

" On Monday, I reported why veteran WTO watchers consider this election to be especially important for the venerable multilateral institution’s future, citing the prescient warning from economist Jagdish Bhagwati that the WTO is now in real “danger.” And I reported on the qualifications of three of the nine candidates who come from the Asia-Pacific: Tim Groser of New Zealand, Indonesia’s Mari Pangestu; and Taeho Bark, South Korea’s candidate. Today, the rest of the field. 

 Three come from Latin America, two from Africa, and one from the Middle East. Altogether, it’s a strong field — although it is not clear which of the nine would exercise truly strong leadership. Nor is it clear that the top political leaders in major world capitals really are focused on the importance of selecting such a leader. And as outgoing Director-General Lamy has learned, without that necessary backing, no WTO head, no matter how dedicated and energized, can stop the institutional drift."

Is it inevitable that the major trading powers need to recognize and get involved in the multilateral institution for it to succeed? It has been note that a lack of a candidate (except New Zealand) from the developed world (major trading countries) indicates a lack of interest in the institution's future? Is it reading to much? The next DG would perhaps need to take both the developed and developing worlds leaders together to achieve what multilateralism can really achieve. 

UNCTAD and selection of it's next chief - some issues

While all eyes are on the selection of the next WTO DG (the press conferences at the WTO have been fascinating to me), my attention was brought on the selection of the next Secretary General of the UNCTAD considering the institutional issues that have arisen in UNCTAD in recent times. The Globalization and Development blog raises the issue here. 

In an open letter to the Secretary General of the UN, leading academics and scholars have called upon certain criteria to be followed for selection of the next Secretary General of UNCTAD. 

"We very strongly urge that the next Secretary-General of UNCTAD, in addition to all the necessary experience, knowledge and management abilities, should have in particular the capacity and courage for independent thought. It is this characteristic that has been the distinguishing factor among the eminent persons who have held the post over nearly 50 years of UNCTAD’s existence. 

A demonstrated ability to provide strong and independent leadership to global analysis from a development perspective and to promote fresh thinking on trade and development issues is needed today more than ever. The world clamours for innovative economic thinking that charts a sustainable way out of the current crisis and that contributes to development and poverty reduction. We would regard the capacity to stimulate such thinking and to articulate the resulting policy approaches in the relevant forums as the single most important consideration when sifting among possible candidates in the requisite consultations with member States. The growing weight of developing countries in global matters requires an intellectually outstanding personality as the new leader of UNCTAD."

Interesting lessons for the the WTO DG selection process? Any lessons that one can learn from the points raised in the letter? the focus of most of the candidates for the WTO DG stressed on reworking the Doha round - some would recommend an innovative approach here too. A lot to watch for in the coming months!

What did the candidates say?

The race for the DG's position at the WTO is formally underway with the presentation and press conference made by the potential candidates in January 2013. The nominees currently vying for the WTO’s top post are Alan Kyerematen of Ghana; Anabel González of Costa Rica; Mari Elka Pangestu of Indonesia; Tim Groser of New Zealand; Amina Mohamed of Kenya; Ahmad Thougan Hindawi of Jordan; Herminio Blanco of Mexico; Taeho Bark of Korea; and Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo of Brazil. The WTO had a webcast of the press conferences here. Sofia Alicia Balino makes a succinct analysis of the positions taken by the 9 candidates on various issues here.

Some underlying themes expressed in the press conferences of the candidates were:

1. A belief in the multilateral institution and the faith that it can be relevant to the issues facing international trade

2. The need to address the issues stalling the Doha round of trade negotiations and to confront them with heterodox and innovative solutions

3. Ensure Bali leads to a positive outcome with successful results (mini-deals), which can be extended to the Doha round

4.Recognize the need for the WTO to grapple with 21st century trade issues in order not to lose its relevance

5. Ensure that the other functions of the WTO, including monitoring of trade agreements and dispute settlement are performed more effectively

6.They were candid enough to suggest that they did not have all the answers to the impasse but were optimistic of finding a solution 

The coming months will see more debate and hope for the multilateral institution's strength of being a "member-driven" organization with the candidates having to convince member countries about their candidacy. To what extent the selection would be based on credentials and realities of political economy is another debate!

Hat tip to Pradeep Mehta, CUTS for bringing my attention to Sofia's piece.

Live webcast of WTO DG candidates

Live webcasting of the press conferences of candidates for the WTO DGs post will be made available on the WTO website here on 29th, 30th and 31st of January 2013.

This is the first time all the candidates will be present at the same forum to espouse their candidature.

The Rushford Report on WTO elections

I found this interesting website by Greg Rushford called "The Rushford Report" which analyses the political underpinnings of many international economic law and policy developments. A great read!

The WTO DG's election is round the corner and many commentaries on the process and likely successor to Pascal Lamy have been written. I happened to find this piece (courtesy the IELP blog) titled "The WTO's "Dangerous" Election" (part 1 of a two-part series) on the WTO DG's election a storehouse of information written in an inimitable style (rarely found in literature related to international economic law and policy) on the candidates and the likely result of the DG election. Summarizing the nature of a WTO DG's election process well, it explains:

"Whatever they want, this WTO election sure is different than what many would consider a “normal” one. There won’t be public polls. No focus groups.  No campaign rallies. No television commercials. And there will never be a recorded vote. 

The candidates will present themselves to the WTO’s General Council in Geneva on Jan. 29, in public proceedings that will be broadcast on the Internet. They will take questions, drawn from a box at random. And then they will get on the road for the next couple months, making their cases to the usual suspects in various word capital cities: trade officials, political leaders, and — horrors, if the WTO’s pesky band of vociferous anti-trade activists gets wind of this! — even corporate lobbyists. Some of the latter, to be sure, will offer enlightened perspectives in the public interest of strengthening the WTO as an institution. Others will have parochial axes to grind. But all will know how to whisper in the ears of the mighty and good in world capital cities."

The next few months will see hectic "consensus" building over the future WTO chief. Considerations will range from qualifications to nationality of the candidates, including the political economy of trading relations. May the best candidate win.

Race for the WTO DG's position

The race for the post of the WTO's DG position is all set for a close finish with 9 candidates in the fray. I have blogged about it here and here. The IELP blog had this detailed post on the implications of the race for the future of the WTO here. The Washington Post has summarized the race as a "worldwide scramble" for the post here. Indonesia's candidate's potential was highlighted in this post.The China Daily had this view on the issue.The coming months will see increased statements and posturing by the candidates on the future of the WTO, multilateral trade and the fate of Doha. Some highlights of the agenda that the discourse is taking is here:

The Mexican candidate as per this report "has pledged to "fight protectionism" amid the global economic downturn and promised efforts in concrete terms and in every sense to protect the free flow of goods in international trade".

The Brazilian candidate focussed on the Doha round when he remarked that "The impasse in Doha Round negotiations has resulted in serious and concrete differences among the member states. “Therefore, it’s fundamental that the future director general be able to move easily among the different groups of countries, regardless of their level of development, without imposing views on anyone and trying to forge all possible consensuses.”

Talking about the WTO, the Kenyan candidate, as per this report, has stated that “There is a need to protect it from the onslaught of protectionist measures that have and may be introduced and to take stock of what has happened with” the Doha Round of talks that seeks to cut farm aid and crack open markets."

Candidates seem to be espousing the virtues of free trade, less tree barriers, free flow of goods and the dangers of protectionism. The revival of the Doha round too seems to be on the agenda of a few. How critical is the Doha round to the future of the WTO itself? How critical is the choice of the next WTO chief critical to the institution of the WTO itself? A succinct analysis of the issues involved and the questions at stake is provided  from the Law offices of Stewart and Stewart which concluded:

"The direction of the WTO is only partially driven by the selection of the Director-General. Nonetheless, at the present time, it is fair to say that the choice of the Director-General can make a difference in the trajectory of change the organization will undergo over the next four years."

We will see more debate and discussion on the issues of protectionism, multilateral negotiations and the future role of the WTO in the submissions made by the various candidates canvassing for the top position. Some lessons for the future may be culled out from this discourse.

The Contenders!

Here is the list of the 9 contenders for the post of the Director General, WTO which is on the WTO website :

	Mr Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen
	Ghana
	> Biography
	Ms Anabel González
	Costa Rica
	> Biography
	Ms Mari Elka Pangestu
	Indonesia
	> Biography
	Mr Tim Groser
	New Zealand
	> Biography
	Ms Amina C. Mohamed
	Kenya
	> Biography
	Mr Ahmad Thougan Hindawi
	Jordan
	> Biography
	Mr Herminio Blanco
	Mexico
	> Biography
	Mr Taeho Bark
	The Republic of Korea
	> Biography
	Mr Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo
	Brazil
	> Biography

Looking forward to their presentations on the 29th of January at the WTO... Let the contest begin!...

2013 - Would multilateralism prevail?

With the Bali Ministerial is fast approaching (in the context of trade negotiations a year is definitely 'fast approaching') calls for a reinvigoration of multilateralism have started surfacing again. The failure of the Doha round and a growth in bilateralism are seen as threats to the rule-based, non-discriminatory international legal framework.

Peter Sutherland, a former GATT and WTO Director General, called upon the US and China to take a lead in restoring the credibility of the WTO negotiation process. Writing in Livemint on the issue he stated:

"It is not too late to reverse the apparently inexorable tide of bilateralism. But the only way to do so is by proceeding with WTO negotiations. Even if the Doha Round cannot be concluded, there may be other routes, such as implementing what has already been agreed. 

Another alternative might be to advance multilateral negotiations among willing countries in specific areas, such as services, with other WTO members joining later. 

But if we are to move forward rather than revert to earlier, more dangerous times, the US, in particular, must reassert a constructive role in multilateralism. The US must lead again, as it did in the past. And now it must do so with China at its side."

WIll multilateralism prevail in 2013? WIll the low hanging fruit of multilateral negotiations be picked? Will a Trade Facilitation Agreement get a thumbs-up? Will more plurilateral agreements be entered into, to be adopted later by all members? Will it lead to the resurrection of multilateral negotiations to break the juggernaut of PTAs and FTAs? How will the impasse be broken? Which countries will take a lead? How will dispute settlement react to the progress in negotiations? How much pressure would it be able to withstand? Will it be continue to evoke the respect it does now?

One would need to see through 2013 for some of these answers, I guess.

And finally Brazil joins the party!

Brazil finally decided to join the race for the top post of the WTO with the nomination of Mr Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo for post of WTO Director-General.A detailed bio of Mr.Roberto is found here.

"Ambassador Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, a Brazilian career diplomat, has been the Permanent Representative of Brazil to the WTO and other International Economic Organisations in Geneva since 2008. Besides WTO, Ambassador Azevêdo also represents Brazil before other economic organisations, such as the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO), the United Nations Council for Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). 

Having joined the Brazilian Foreign Service in 1984, he has since then accumulated vast experience in international economic and trade policy matters, including dispute settlement. Ambassador Azevêdo’s last position in Brasilia, from 2006 to 2008 at the Ministry of Foreign Relations, was Vice-Minister for Economic and Technological Affairs. In that capacity, he was Brazil’s chief-negotiator for the Doha Round and supervised MERCOSUR’s trade negotiations with other groupings or countries outside Latin America.

May 2013 will see a finality in the selection process.With majority of candidates from the developing world, would the selection of a developing country candidate change the dynamics of negotiations of the Doha round?

Jordan's WTO candidate?

With the top post for the WTO falling vacant in September 2013, the race is heating up. I have earlier followed this story and blogged about it here and here. Arabianbusiness.com carried a piece of an unlikely candidate for the post - from Jordan - Ahmad Thougan Al Hindawi, a former minister of industry and trade of Jordan. 

"Jordan will put forward a former government minister for the top job at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) when the term of French Director General Pascal Lami expires at the end of August 2013, theJordan Times reported, citing an unidentified senior government official. 

The kingdom's government decided December 9 to nominate Ahmad Thougan Al Hindawi, a former minister of industry and trade for the top WTO post, marking the first time the country has contested the role."

Will he be a front runner for the post or a dark horse from the developing countries perspective? The battle lines are not yet drawn on this issue and all the cards are not out in the open. The EU Trade Commissioner opined recently that the next WTO chief would not be from Europe. 

2013 will be interesting times for political watchers of the WTO.

After Pascal Lamy, who?

(Tim Groser, Minister of Trade, New Zealand)

(Pascal Lamy, DG, WTO)

News of Tim Groser being in the race for the next WTO DG after Pascal Lamy (his second four year term ends in September 2013) is trickling in. The NZherald news confirmed this. Tim Groser has served New Zealand in a number of capacities including being New Zealand's chief negotiator in the Uruguay Round of trade talks. He is presently Minister of Trade of New Zealand. The IELP blog carried a speech of his recently highlighting his views on international law and the loss of sovereignty.

Tim Groser speaking at the 8th Ministerial Conference at Doha recently had opined about the way forward in the Doha round and how to get over the impasse:

"While we strengthen the existing system, deal with the 20th Century problems that lie at the heart of the Doha Development Agenda, we also need to look forward to emerging issues. The WTO is the place countries deal with the whole gamut of trade issues. The Doha mandate covers a subset of those issues. We need to accelerate our understanding of these emerging issues. This will be politically possible only if it is done explicitly on the basis that we are not trying to redefine the mandate. The developing countries would reject such an approach out of hand. But we need to start understanding emerging issues like the implications of the global supply chain for WTO Rules. Similarly, there is a whole set of issues in the trade and environment space that are going to demand attention, not simply the issue of environmental goods and services and the agreement we need on fishery subsidies that must be part of any Doha outcome. If we can develop a sense amongst negotiators that there are some solutions out there, this will exert positive gravitational pull on the Doha mandated issues and deal in part with the legitimate concern that we need to keep our system up to date. 

Our thinking is based on a frank admission that the path forward is by definition unclear. Therefore a more subtle, less prescriptive approach aimed at three levels - strengthening the existing defences against protectionism, finding ways forward on the 20th Century agenda defined by the Doha Mandate with development at the centre of that mandate, and starting to point the way forward on 21st Century issues - is the way forward."

His speech recently too highlighted the Doha impasse, the way forward and the need to recognize the multipolarity of today's global governance, especially in international trade:

"We are moving towards a multi-hegemonic system of power but the global governance system that would match that is remarkably immature My central view is that it is not a fundamentally different system that needs to be designed, but rather the informal modus operandi of the system needs to change to reflect the shift in relative power. 

The issue here is about leadership: no system of global governance can work without it. When China joined the WTO I heard some deeply experienced people speculate on how the WTO would work with the ‘800 pound gorilla’ in the ring. The concern is entirely the wrong way round. The greater danger is the opposite – these great emerging economies may not use their huge weight and influence to provide leadership but behave too passively. 

There can be no definitive conclusion to this. I think we are in a process of transition and the trick here will be to ensure that something gets done on both trade and climate change during that transition."

The race for the next WTO DG might have just begun. Some have argued that the next head must be from a developing economy to reflect changed dynamics and realities of world trade. Whoever the next chief is, the task would be an arduous one - to get Doha back on track and ensure multilateralism prevails in the context of increasing trends of protectionism.