Moving from protectionism to precautionism?

What is the future of globalization post the pandemic? Pascal Lamy, the former DG of the WTO speaks about it here in a podcast reported in the Lowy Institute website.

Pascal Lamy cautioned that there would be more "precautionism" rather than protectionism. This would be more subjective and problematic. Some of the points on the podcast jotted down here:

On the future of globalization:

1. More obstacles to freer trade

2. Speed of globalization will change, but not towards deglobalisation

3. Slowing down of global trade - there is huge amount of helicopter money in some countries - so large State intervention in US, EU, China

4.Supply chain fragility - but more bark than bite 

5. Bit of rechoring may be in pharma

6. Precautionism as opposed to protectionism

7. It is protecting your people from risk - overall level of precaution will increase

8. Safety standards, security - precaution is a politically connected issue - what is a good level for you

9. As opposed to tariffs (usual tools) - addressing precautionism is very subjective - more fragmentation

10. Leveling the playing field of precautionism is more difficult

On the WTO

1. WTO is weaker than 10 years ago

2. Increasing divergence in collective preferences between the US and China

3. Updating the WTO rulebook - is what we say reform of WTO

4. China has changed - state owned part of economy is 30% of the economy

5. SOE needs support from the State - intervention - distorts the market, internally and externally

6. WTO disciplines in state aids are shallow and need to be strengthened - EU, US, China, Japan have to converge for competitive neutrality

7. US-China rivalry well placed to stay

8. Will take a few years to stabilize

9. WTO reform - short term goals - cooling down period, easing trade distortions, coalition of the willing to stop the distortions

10. Long term - Developing countries need to step in since international trade and investment is a big lever for development

Is it realistic that WTO will move forward?

1. Notion that playing field needs to be levelled is a major issue for developing countries - it is a further obstacle to development.

2. Notion of rebalance will remain

3. Is China a developing country anymore?

China and the WTO

1. Existing set of disciplines does not constraining some trade distorting practises of certain WTO players. 

2. No more convergence now. Co-existence now. 

3. If they do not accept new disciplines, then opening up trade will stop. The rulebook is not enough to adapt to the present trade distorting practises.

          4. US farm support also an issue. 

Lot of things to chew upon there. Reform required, but of what?