Will Bali be able to deliver what Doha could not?

The Doha Development Agenda or Doha round has been written off by many as not being capable of producing any exults in the coming years, already having lingered on for more than a decade. Will the 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali (I have blogged about it here and here) break the impasse, at least partially?

Pascal Lamy alluded to the possibility of a basket of credible results in Bali in December 2013 here. Referring to the way forward on these negotiations:

"To ensure that the process runs as smoothly as possible and to avoid any surprises, we need to stick to a few simple guidelines.  

First, we need to work towards what is reasonably doable.  Members should be realistic in their demands, take into account other Members’ red lines and stay clear of what are known to be unattainable objectives.  

Second, when advancing a proposal, it is the proponents’ responsibility to build consensus around it.  Make sure that you are working towards convincing the other Members, not yourselves.
Third, avoid being confrontational.  Any proposal should not be framed as a kind of take-it-or-leave-it position.  The negotiating process entails a trade-off between concessions and demands.  Be flexible and work together with other Members and around their sensitivities to achieve a common understanding.  

Certainly, none of these points are new.  They have guided the last couple of MC preparatory processes.  They are mainly dictated by common sense, but they are fundamental if we want to act responsibly and with collective determination in the run-up to Bali. 

Without setting new and unworkable deadlines, MC9 provides us with an opportunity to show that WTO Members can advance the negotiating front of the WTO agenda.  Of course, we should be under no illusion about the breadth of what we can achieve in the short timeframe between now and MC9.  Nor should we create unrealistic expectations. The main stumbling blocks of the DDA are still standing and many of the toughest nuts will likely not be cracked by the time Ministers meet in Bali. 

But although we must manage expectations and keep ambitions in check for Bali, we cannot fall short of delivering on a credible basket of issues that would signal your confidence that the rest of the Doha agenda can be addressed in due course."

Will Bali be the golden opportunity to bring negotiations back on track with some 'credible results"? T.S.Vishwanath feels Bali can perhaps provide a breakthrough:

"To a great extent, Bali can resurrect WTO and help member countries look at the organization to resolve some of the emerging issues in global trade. The next six months would be critical in developing an agenda that can be resolved by the end of the ministerial"

Trade Facilitation, may be? WIll there be an acknowledgement to move away from the single undertaking principle? A lot of expectations on Bali - Let the preparations begin! Indications of it were probably found in the Davos meet about which was alluded to here.

Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference - Will Bali be able to deliver?

MINISTERIAL CONFERENCES Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference

The WTO website has a new page for the 9th Ministerial Conference of the WTO to be held in December 2013. It also has a record of all the eight earlier Ministerials since WTO was established in 1995.

Hopefully, more information on what is shaping up at Bali will be found here in the coming months.

Over to Bali, Indonesia

The serene environs of Bali will host the next Ministerial Conference (MC9) of the WTO in December 2013. I had earlier blogged about this here. Will we see some headway in the Doha rounds of negotiations here? The WTO website announced the MC9 here. The ground rules were set:

"Also resulting from her consultations, the chair proposed the following principles "to guide both the preparations for MC9 and the Conference itself":

• First, the “FIT” principle — Full participation, Inclusiveness, and Transparency;

• Second, any issue for action or decision by Ministers proposed by members should be developed by them in line with the normal consensus principle; and

• Third, issues for action or decision by Ministers should be agreed well before MC9."

Will the salubrious setting of Bali break the Doha deadlock? Will it lead to a meaningful advancement of the Doha round? Will we see the single undertaking principle given up for "low hanging fruit" agreements? Will we see a turn around in negotiations at the multilateral level? If any decisions are to culminate in Bali, the next 10 months would involve extensive negotiations to reach that goal.

Over to Bali.

Doha negotiations - Need to change gears?

The Doha round of multilateral negotiations has been going on for a decade now. When will it come to an end? Will the impasses continue for a few more years? A study by Christoph Moser and Andrew Rose titled "Why do trade negotiations take so long?" have articulated the view that it takes longer to conclude multilateral talks when more countries are involved. This is not good news for the Doha round. Comparing the time taken for different GATT rounds, it is interesting to note that the first three GATT rounds which had 19, 20 and 33 members in total took only 8 months to complete. Contrast that with the Uruguay Round that took 91 months with 125 members involved in the negotiations. While one third of countries in the first three rounds were developing countries, now about two third of the countries belong to the developing world.

The above study provides a graphical depiction of the survival rate of Regional Trade Agreements compared to the days of negotiation indicating that it is also inversely proportional to the time taken for their completion as indicated in this figure below:

The reasons for the delay in conclusion of the Doha Round can be attributed to a number of factors:

1. With more than 150 countries participating in the negotiations, there are bound to be divergent interests and hard positions.

2. The developing world is far more active in these negotiations as compared to the earlier rounds leading to increased possibilities of an impasse.

3. The issues themselves are becoming more complex and contentious. While the earlier rounds were more about tariff liberalisation, the present rounds touch on more complex issues of trade, development and access. 

One would have to wait and see if the Doha round of negotiations can break the direct co relation between the length of a negotiation and its poor survival rate.


Pascal Lamy recently highlighted the need to move forward in this regard:

"Those of you who believe that, as time passes, inexorably, the Round might lose all its remaining steam may be right, whether we like it or not. What is clear, in my view, is that not engaging seriously in trying to find solutions to the present impasse will increase the probability of such a disappointing outcome. Credibility lies in the capacity to produce results, not statements. We should all face up to this reality and accept that there is no individual clever escape from this collective responsibility. As we break for the summer, I would urge each of you to reflect on your individual contribution towards collectively breaking the deadlock and allowing for forward movement in our work to fully operationalize the guidance we received at MC8 from our Ministers."

Only time will tell if the gears will be changed in this regard.