Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Covid, trade and what is in store

I have been contemplating a post in these challenging times. There is no news other than Covid. Considering this blog is on international trade, what better than a post on Covid and trade.

I found this illuminative trade talk on Covid and trade in the Peterson Institute for International Economics blog. Chris Rogers explains with data the various consequences on Covid on trade with this conversation with Soumaya Keynes and Chad Brown

Some learnings, obvious and some educative:

1. Covid will have a lasting impact on supply chains. Countries will begin thinking of diversifying their supply chain geographies so that they are not impacted by such eventualities 
2. Air freights have increased and a shift to air cargo supplies
3. 1/3rd of ventilators to the US comes from the EU
4. Global trade has collapsed and there is probability that in some economies reliant on exports this will fall by 40%
5.Major interruptions in supply chains especially in automative and electronic sectors
6. Inadequacy of services trade data - estimated at best as compared to goods trade. Services trade is very flat in these times.

Plenty more on data, trade and impact of Covid. Do hear their entire conversation.


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