Being futuristic about the WTO

Predictions about the future of the global trading system are common. 

This recent one by Alan Wm.Wollf provides a futuristic WTO and what needs to be done to achieve it. In a piece titled "The Future of the Multilateral Trading System" in the American University, he outlines his vision of the institutions's future.

What caught my attention was the list of topics that he laid out as what the WTO may have to address in the future 

Climate change. Crops will fail. Extreme weather, which can appear in the form of droughts or floods, will be experienced. Waves of pests may occur. Rising sea levels will cause displacement of people and agriculture. Global challenges require coordinated action. Food production will need to be more efficient and more responsive. Markets will have to be more open, and undistorted. An equally important front in combatting climate change is carbon reduction. Unilateral measures to deal with carbon leakage will prove to be contentious and less effective. A pillar of policy responses should be liberalization of trade in environmental goods and services. 

Sustainability. The WTO’s members chose to plant a flag for stewardship of the environment with the issue of curbing fisheries subsidies. They have proceeded part of the way with a first agreement, and clarified the issues that divide members in a second part of the fisheries subsidies suite of issues. Part I of the agreement is poised for ratification. Part II is poised for conclusion of the negotiations. The degree of success for this next stage rests primarily with China and India. This is a test of their commitment to an effective multilateral solution. 

Social issues. Trade distortions caused by gender discrimination, forced labor, as well as changes in trade patterns due to technological advances and shifts in competitive strengths and weaknesses not eased by domestic policy measures, all undermine domestic social contracts in the absence of an international social contract. These subjects require more than discussion. The current global trade rule book needs updating. 

 Global health. The WTO failed to rise to meet the trade challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is whether the institution will be in any better position to meet another global health emergency. 

Industrial policy. What is considered acceptable requires international discussion, to understand if there are boundaries that can be established. 

 The digital economy. As trade increasingly is increasingly digital, if there are no agreed rules of the road, competing national and regional regulations will tend to stifle economic growth and result in trade conflicts. Maintaining “policy space” (freedom to regulate) is a sub-optimal solution. 

Trade across the geopolitical divide. Neither the US nor China seek complete decoupling of their economies. The European Union and other allies of the US clearly do not wish this, not yet in any event. The current trading system is unstable due to uncertainty over to what extent trade across the geopolitical divide is deemed positive by either side. 

Considering the current state of negotiations where issues progress at a glacial pace, it may well look like a futuristic vision.