One often debates about the impact of bilateral trade and investment agreements on one's economy. However, most of the time it is based on rhetoric and unsubstantiated facts. Has a particular FTA led to an increase in exports or has it led to job losses in particular sectors? Who are the winners and losers?
Ravi Velloor makes a neat analysis of the India Singapore CECA and how it continues to impact Singapore's economy. In this piece in the Strait Times, he calls for a long time view of any trade agreement instead of looking at short term factors. he analyses how the CECA has impacted Singapore's labour market but also how SIngapore has gained access to India's financial sector. The point made was that these agreements have helped Singapore increase its exports. However, its market too has been opened up to the partner's imports as well as movement of professionals. Would this have been possible without the CECA? Another interesting fact is the rise in FDI from Singapore post-CECA. One of the arguments against BITs and ISDS has been that BITS do not really contribute to FDI inflows into a country. The rise of FDI in India of Singaporean companies post 2005 is a counterfactual to this narrative.
This new report raises the balance one has make to be both self reliant and open. With trade pacts opening up one's economy, it also provides opportunities for local manufacturers and service suppliers to benefit. How much, to what extent and in what sectors is the critical questions to be asked before one embarks on a trade pact negotiation.
The eternal question will remain - how much to liberalise and at what cost?
Ravi Velloor makes a neat analysis of the India Singapore CECA and how it continues to impact Singapore's economy. In this piece in the Strait Times, he calls for a long time view of any trade agreement instead of looking at short term factors. he analyses how the CECA has impacted Singapore's labour market but also how SIngapore has gained access to India's financial sector. The point made was that these agreements have helped Singapore increase its exports. However, its market too has been opened up to the partner's imports as well as movement of professionals. Would this have been possible without the CECA? Another interesting fact is the rise in FDI from Singapore post-CECA. One of the arguments against BITs and ISDS has been that BITS do not really contribute to FDI inflows into a country. The rise of FDI in India of Singaporean companies post 2005 is a counterfactual to this narrative.
This new report raises the balance one has make to be both self reliant and open. With trade pacts opening up one's economy, it also provides opportunities for local manufacturers and service suppliers to benefit. How much, to what extent and in what sectors is the critical questions to be asked before one embarks on a trade pact negotiation.
The eternal question will remain - how much to liberalise and at what cost?
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